Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have reached a new high as both governments accuse each other of provocations, territorial violations and preparations for renewed war, raising fears that the fragile Horn of Africa could once again descend into open conflict.
In a formal diplomatic communiqué to the United Nations and several heads of state, Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused Eritrea of arming rebel groups, occupying sovereign Ethiopian territory, and committing human rights violations against civilians.
Addis Ababa warned that Asmara is preparing for a military offensive in the summer and called on the international community to intervene, demanding that “Eritrean troops withdraw from Ethiopian and stop intervening in its internal affairs.”
“The Ethiopian government will take all necessary measures to defend its sovereignty, peace, and security,” the ministry said.
Eritrea swiftly rejected the claims, with Eritrea’s Ministry of Information describing the allegations as “preposterous lies” and accusing Addis Ababa of orchestrating a “calculated disinformation campaign” to justify military aggression. “This is a transparent ploy to hoodwink the international community and rationalize a new wave of hostility,” the statement said.
Fragile Peace, Mounting Risks
In June, 2018, the world celebrated the surprise rapprochement between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, a move that got Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize. But the peace has proved brittle, and many now agree that it was little more than a tactical alliance to wage war against Tigray.
Following the signing of the Pretoria Peace Agreement in late 2022, tensions between Addis Ababa and Asmara have quietly returned. Eritrea, which was not a signatory to the accord, has viewed the agreement with suspicion.
During an interview with Eritrean state media, President Isaias lamented that the Pretoria deal had “stopped” Eritrea’s plans, accusing the U.S. of imposing the agreement to curtail its regional ambitions.
Tensions between the two countries have been further inflamed by Ethiopia’s calls for sovereign access to the Red Sea, a demand Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has described as “existential.”
Ethiopia, landlocked since Eritrea’s independence in 1993, relies heavily on Djibouti for maritime trade. But recent rhetoric from Addis Ababa hinting at strategic, historical, and even security based claims for direct coastal access has unsettled neighboring countries.
Although Ethiopia has not explicitly named Eritrean ports in its ambitions, the message has been interpreted by Asmara as a veiled threat. Eritrean officials have responded with alarm, warning against any attempts to alter regional borders or challenge Eritrea’s sovereignty.
The sea access issue has transformed an already tense relationship into a potential geopolitical powder keg and the risk is not just war between two nations it’s the regionalization of that conflict.
Is a Proxy War Brewing in the Horn?
The Horn of Africa, one of the most volatile and strategically contested regions in the world, is bracing for a potential return to war as Ethiopia and Eritrea trade increasingly aggressive accusations and mobilize their political and military machinery.
The Horn of Africa is viewed as a geopolitical chessboard, with global and regional powers jostling for influence. The United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Russia, China, and Western nations all have military or commercial interests in Red Sea access points, ports, and inland corridors.
With so many players involved, there is growing concern that the Horn could become the next theater for a deadly proxy war, especially if a direct Ethiopia–Eritrea war is going to erupt.
The region has all the ingredients of a future proxy war. Weak states, Internal divisions, strategic maritime routes, and competing foreign interests. If the tensions between the two former allies escalates into a full fledged war, it won’t stay a bilateral conflict.
Meanwhile, ongoing war in Sudan, insurgence in Somalia, and Ethiopia’s internal unrest in Amhara and Oromia, have left the region on edge.
Analysts warn that any renewed conflict involving Eritrea and Ethiopia could further destabilize the Horn, trigger massive displacement and migration, and complicate the already fragile humanitarian situation in the region.
A Tigray divided and exploited by its former enemies
Amid the rising tensions, both Ethiopia and Eritrea appear to be maneuvering to expand their influence, Tigray once a common enemy during the two years of war, but now emerging as a fragmented political landscape.
Both Asmara and Addis Ababa are attempting to exploit the internal split within the ruling political establishment. Eritrea is reportedly trying to align the TPLF, led by Debretsion Gebremichael, while Ethiopia’s federal government supports the political group led by Getachew Reda, former deputy chairman of the TPLF and head of the Interim Administration.
While both sides within Tigray claim to represent the interests of the Tigrayan people, the deepening divisions have made Tigray more vulnerable to external manipulation.
Several Tigrayan political and civil society leaders have expressed concern that Tigray is being dragged into a geopolitical tug of war that could derail its fragile peace.
For Tigray, caught between competing forces and fractured from within, the cost of another war is going to be catastrophic.