Following the announcement by the senior military leaders, there are growing concerns that what started as a political dispute within the TPLF is evolving into a creeping coup.
On January 23, 2025, Tigray politics has seen a dramatic escalation in its internal power dynamics.
On that day Senior military commanders declared their backing for the faction led by former Tigray president and Chairman of the TPLF, Debretsion Gebremichael, calling for the restructuring of the Interim Administration and giving recognition for one faction only.
On their statement the senior military commander has accused the interim administration of being a group of “traitors working with the enemy,”
Following this announcement by the military leaders there are growing concerns that what started as a political dispute within the TPLF is evolving into a creeping coup that could destabilize Tigray and have wider implications in Ethiopia and the region.
A glimpse into the power struggle within the TPLF
After the signing of the Pretoria agreement the TPLF has been grappling with internal party disputes and divisions.
The first rift in the TPLF’s leadership began to appear right after the signing of the Pretoria agreement which declared the election held in Tigray as null and void and demanded the establishment of an interim administration.
Many party members accused Getachew and his team of conspiring to dismantle the regional government led by Debretsion Gebremichael.
Despite the opposition to the decision by many members of the party, later it was agreed to dismantle the government and establish an interim administration. However months long tensions within the party have continued regarding who will lead the Interim administration.
Even if many party members choosing Debretsion to continue leading the region, Federal government refused to accept him which led to another round of election process in the party which ended up choosing Getachew as the new President for Tigray.
After his election what seems like a peaceful power transition was seen but the internal power struggle has intensified, with one attempting to delegitimize the other and assume full control over political power.
During public meetings and media briefing Getachew Reda, President of the Interim administration has been accusing a group led from the TPLF office of trying to undermine the interim administration and control the lower government structure.
This division has escalated into splitting the party into two factions following a controversial party congress last year.
Following the controversial congress the dispute escalated into a chock hold power struggle between the faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael and Getachew Reda.
After the congress Debretsions faction announced that it has removed senior officials from the interim administration including Getachew Reda and assigned new people to various positions except the President position.
The faction that held a congress vowed to assume full control of the power it says it has lost. During a town hall meeting with the party members in Mekelle, Fetlewerk Gebregziabher, senior leader in the TPLF said “We are now kicked out of power and we need to reclaim that back.” and vows to fight until this is achieved.
This has led to power grabbing in the lower level of the government in the Woredas, zone and Kebelles paralyzing the interim administration and escalating tensions.
A Coup Without Guns
A creeping coup is a subtle but effective form of power grab, often slower and less overt than a traditional military takeover.
Rather than storming government buildings or seizing offices overnight, It starts with the gradual erosion of institutional authority, a political narrative that seeks to justify the change, and strategic efforts to consolidate control without a single dramatic move. The result is a change in power that maybe harder to notice but no less impactful.
The Signs of a Creeping Coup in Tigray
Debretsion’s faction now has already succeeded in gaining almost full control of lower government structures. According to many observers, at the woreda and zone levels, key bureaus and local councils are now aligned with Debretsion’s camp.
This grassroots infiltration of political structures is one of the most insidious aspects of the creeping coup. By controlling local councils, his faction is weakening the authority of Getachew’s Interim administration at the grassroots level and cementing its own support base.
And after the recent announcement by the military, calling for the dissolution and restructuring of the region’s interim administration Debretsion’s faction is shifting its focus to controlling strategic institutions.
According to a report by BBC Amharic days after the announcement by the military, attempts were made by militias to seize the Mekelle radio station, a tool usually used to influence the wider public, and install a new leader loyal to Debretsion’s faction.
Meanwhile, efforts are also underway to control the Endowment Fund for the Rehabilitation of Tigray (EFFORT), a powerful economic conglomerate that has long been the financial backbone of TPLF governance in Tigray.
According to several sources the military had also began holding meetings with lower-ranking officers in different army’s to “build consensus” around the decisions it passed.
Historical Parallels
What we are witnessing in Tigray is not an isolated event but a part of a historical pattern.
A creeping coup is often defined by gradual erosion rather than sudden explosions of violence. We’ve seen this before in Ethiopia and other parts of Africa: the slow dismantling of government systems from within, where the military, once seen as the protector of the state, turns into an instrument for subversion.
The most striking historical example is Ethiopia’s own Derg regime in 1974. In a process that took months, the military systematically dismantled the monarchy’s control, using its growing influence to steadily erode the Emperor’s authority. While there was no single moment of violence that overthrew Haile Selassie, the Derg slowly choked the life out of his rule.
A Region on the Brink
Tigray’s fragile peace, achieved through the Pretoria Agreement, is now at risk. What began as a political factional dispute may soon spiral into an irreversible power shift, that could reshape Tigray’s political landscape in ways that may not be fully understood until it is too late.
The question is not whether a power shift is happening, but who will ultimately emerge as Tigray’s leader and at what cost to its fragile peace?
The Ethiopian federal government, has so far refrained from directly intervening in TPLF’s internal power struggle.
Addis has preferred a wait and see approach, hoping that internal TPLF divisions will prevent any faction from gaining full control. However, if the current situation escalates, federal forces could justify intervention in the pretext of maintaining stability and insuring law enforcement.
And such interventions from the Federal government may enable other actors to take advantage and try to exploit the situation by taking sides and turning Tigray into a battle ground.
The time for all Tigrayans to unite and force the politicians to bring back their differences to the table is now. In action from Tigrayans is driving Tigray into a brink of collapse no one will benefit from. Everyone must act now beforeit is too late.